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Introduction
Amid the proceedings of the 2024 Two Sessions, an economic initiative emerged to seize the spotlight, eclipsing the once-prominent "Made in China 2025" strategy. Termed "new quality productive forces," this initiative signifies China's embrace of cutting-edge advancements, with technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) positioned as its cornerstone. However, its scope extends beyond AI into innovations including biotechnology, quantum computing, new energy sources, advanced materials, and even ambitious ventures into deep space. In prioritizing these novel forces, China unmistakably signals a forward-looking stance, indicative of a deliberate departure from antiquated paradigms.
This paradigm shift resonates with the statements of Ni Hong, China's Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, who advocated for the bankruptcy of insolvent real estate firms, thereby reinforcing the nation's commitment to progress and transformation. As China sets its sights on the future, President Xi Jinping's endorsement of new quality productive forces marks a pivotal moment in China's economic strategy. This strategic pivot, succeeding the "Made in China 2025" initiative (which was underestimated by many in the West), underscores China's trajectory in pioneering cutting-edge industries, exemplified by its strides in electric vehicles and green technologies.
However, as China charts its course toward new quality productive forces, recent revelations have cast a spotlight on challenges to progress, potentially signaling a gap with American advancements in critical technologies such as AI. While China has emerged as a global leader in digital innovation, its trajectory is beset by a complex interplay of factors, including reliance on US technology, regulatory hurdles, and broader geopolitical implications. Against this backdrop, it becomes imperative to delve deeper into various facets of China's AI strategy in the context of the new quality productive forces paradigm, including the evolving global AI landscape, China's explicit AI goals, Western perceptions and concerns, and the implications of navigating future AI competition.
The Global AI Landscape
China's emergence as a leader in 37 of the world's 44 critical frontier technologies, including AI, biotech, robotics, and quantum computing, underscores growing influence in shaping the global AI landscape.1 These research advances could herald another generation of Chinese industrial eminence within a decade, presenting significant implications for global technology leadership and economic competitiveness.2
Amidst the challenges China is facing, the global AI landscape witnessed a proliferation of AI models and applications. Both state-approved and independently developed large language models (LLMs) are entering the market, raising concerns about content control and accuracy amidst ideological considerations. In this regard, a comparative analysis of AI regulation and development across different regions could delve into the complexities of the global AI landscape and the challenges of achieving advances on an international scale.3
The intensifying competition between China and the United States characterizes the global AI landscape, with implications for technological innovation, employment, economic prosperity,4 and geopolitical influence. While China has made significant strides in certain AI domains, such as computer vision and autonomous vehicles, it is recognized that it still lags behind the United States in some key breakthrough areas, such as generative AI. In this context, China's reliance on US technology in foundational AI research and development underscores the intricate dynamics of the global AI ecosystem. Moreover, the evolving regulatory landscape, trade tensions, and strategic considerations are shaping the contours of AI competition beyond scientific spheres and entering a political arena on the global stage, presenting both opportunities and challenges for stakeholders.5
Indeed, the advancement of AI technology in leading countries such as the United States and China also holds immense potential for countries striving to bolster their economic and social development,6 providing actionable insights for developing countries in the Global South. By examining the performance of leading nations in AI development, it may be possible to elucidate the critical factors underpinning success and translate these lessons into practical recommendations for policymakers.
For instance, the rapid evolution of AI technology has been propelled by significant advancements in algorithmic development, computational power, and the availability of vast datasets. These developments have catalyzed positive impacts across various sectors, including increased productivity, the emergence of new industries, and improvements in healthcare and education.8 However, they also raise concerns regarding job displacement, inequality, privacy risks, and biases, necessitating strategies to harness the benefits of AI while mitigating its risks.
A comprehensive overview of the current AI rankings, including AIRankings, Stanford HAI, Oxford Insights, and Tortoise Media, offers insights into the key measures that different nations could focus on to foster AI development. Metrics such as research publications, patent filings, investment levels, and policy initiatives can elucidate the factors contributing to AI leadership. Moreover, collaborative efforts between academia, industry, and government, as well as the role of regulatory frameworks in fostering AI innovation, are also key in this regard.
For instance, China has managed to leverage its AI-related publications effectively, totaling an impressive number of 15,051 in the past ten years. This is double that of its nearest competitor, the United Kingdom (6,533), but still falls behind the United States (32,205).7 Still, China ranks a close second to the US in measures related to AI infrastructure, research, and commercial aspects, scoring particularly high in AI development. However, it is noteworthy that while China has reached second place in absolute metrics, it has not achieved the same when measuring AI metrics per capita. This highlights the relevance of other countries such as Singapore and Switzerland in the field, but it also opens the door for significant further development if Chinese human capital and talent in AI are managed and fostered successfully in the years to come.
Overall, by learning from leading nations and leveraging international collaboration, countries can chart a path toward AI-driven innovation and inclusive growth, enhancing their competitiveness in the global AI landscape. This is also a key consideration in the AI race,9 as those who lead become the examples followed by the rest, and thus have an immense responsibility in shaping the paths they build.
Reflections on China's AI Goals
At the forefront of the new Chinese strategic vision for the future lies a multifaceted approach encompassing various domains. This comprehensive strategy revolves around achieving three pivotal objectives: furthering domestic technological innovation, accelerating industrial adoption, and bolstering strategic defense capabilities.
China has articulated bold aspirations to position itself as a global AI leader by 2030, evident in its national policy initiatives and substantial investments in AI research and development. Central to China's AI strategy is the pursuit of breakthroughs in generative AI and other key domains, aimed at fueling innovation, boosting productivity, and catalyzing economic expansion. However, achieving these objectives hinges on navigating a complex regulatory landscape, surmounting technological hurdles, and nurturing indigenous AI capabilities. Despite significant strides, China grapples with the challenge of balancing its ambitions for AI advancements with concerns surrounding data privacy, regulatory compliance, and geopolitical tensions.
In this context, despite the concerted efforts of state agencies and private tech firms, China faces some challenges in its AI endeavors, particularly concerning computing infrastructure and access to semiconductors crucial for training AI models. Challenges abound in pursuing high-parameter models, exacerbated by a diverse array of locally developed chips, and worsened by US tech sanctions that limit semiconductor procurement.
Western Perceptions and Concerns
China's goals concerning AI and other facets of the new quality productive forces prompt several inquiries about how the West perceives China's ability to execute this strategy, and how the West will respond to its implications globally. Indeed, there are numerous hurdles confronting China's AI endeavors, ranging from theoretical complexities to technological limitations. For instance, it has been specifically noted that China's role in AI development underscores issues of self-sufficiency and innovation, as well as its lag behind the United States in the field.10 Furthermore, the United States closely monitors China's progress in AI development, often expressing concerns about potential risks and ethical implications.11
While China is not yet the global leader in the field, ranking second to the United States in most AI metrics, Chinese strategies on the matter have been misunderstood. This resembles misunderstandings of China's past strategies such as "Made in China 2025," which contributed to China's achievements in electric cars and green technologies. Critics may dismiss this rhetoric as a veiled attempt to mask economic vulnerabilities, but history proves otherwise. The inception of China's electric vehicle industry, coinciding with the introduction of "Made in China 2025," exemplifies the nation's prowess in translating strategic objectives into tangible industrial achievements. Within a decade, China transformed from a rudimentary industrial power to a global leader in high-end manufacturing, epitomized by the meteoric rise of EV giants like NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto.
However, this newfound success has not been achieved without challenges. Western nations, alarmed by China's ascendancy, are increasingly scrutinizing Chinese industries, citing concerns over subsidies, data security, and fair-trade practices, and have conducted retrospective investigations. Despite this, China forges ahead, cultivating a new generation of technological innovators that could redefine global industrial landscapes. Time will tell which side achieves more advancements in the next few years; nevertheless, competition, so long as it is transparent and fair, will surely ignite the best developments for each side.
Conclusion and Navigating the Future
As China pivots toward the new quality productive forces, seeking rapid advancements in AI and other sectors, it challenges traditional notions of industrial leadership. As China unveils its new strategy, the imperative for Western nations to constructively engage with China's industrial strategies becomes increasingly relevant. China's current blueprint for new quality productive forces could signify a paradigm shift in global economic dynamics. By embracing frontier technologies and fostering a culture of innovation, China could set a course toward sustained economic preeminence, potentially inspiring other nations to follow suit in the years to come.
In this context, as China pursues its AI ambitions, collaborations between research institutions and tech companies like Zhipu AI aim to overcome hurdles and propel innovation forward.12 Despite challenges, the commitment to AI development remains unwavering, with significant investments and advancements shaping the future of AI both domestically and globally.13 Reflecting on the evolving dynamics of AI development and regulation, it is crucial to underscore the importance of dialogue and collaboration amongst stakeholders. While competition is essential, fostering an environment that encourages collaboration is vital in addressing emerging challenges and charting a path toward a more equitable and sustainable digital future.
In navigating the future of competition in the new quality productive forces, particularly in the realm of AI, between China and the United States, strategic foresight and policy agility will be paramount. Collaborative efforts and multilateral engagements will be beneficial in addressing concerns related to data security, intellectual property rights, AI ethics, and potential threats posed by artificial general intelligence (AGI). Fostering an environment conducive to innovation, enabling ethical AI practices, and addressing societal implications are critical imperatives for sustainable technological advancement. While the current global landscape suggests an AI race, a more holistic multilateral approach that balances innovation with international responsibility would be intriguing to observe, at least to a certain extent. With the AI genie now out of the bottle, time will tell which nation will further develop this technology, ideally with a sense of responsibility that could guide other countries in the future.
1. Shirley Ze Yu, "Why China's Plan for 'New Productive Forces' Should Make the West Sit Up," South China Morning Post, March 16, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3255248/why-chinas-plan-new-productive-forces-should-make-west-sit.
2. "AI and Generative AI in 2023: Four Top Questions Answered," PwC, May 5, 2023, https://www.pwc.com/us/en/tech-effect/ai-analytics/artificial-intelligence.html.
3. Kendra Schaefer, "The Rise of AI in China – Digital Technologies and Their Regulation," November 14, 2023, in The Future of Work Podcast, produced by International Labour Organization, podcast, https://voices.ilo.org/podcast/the-rise-of-ai-in-china--digital-technologies-and-their-regulation.
4. Xiang Hui, Oren Reshef, and Luofeng Zhou, "The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market," Social Science Research Network, January 1, 2023, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4527336.
5. Kai-Fu Lee, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2018).
6. Lareina Yee and Michael Chui, "The Economic Potential of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier," produced by McKinsey & Company, June 21, 2023, video, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-live/webinars/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier.
7. "AI Institute and Author Rankings by Publications," AIRankings, accessed April 15, 2024, https://airankings.org/.
8. "The Global AI Index," Tortoise Media, accessed April 15, 2024, https://www.tortoisemedia.com/intelligence/global-ai/#rankings.
9. Paul Mozur, John Liu, and Cade Metz, "China's Rush to Dominate AI Comes with a Twist: It Depends on US Technology," The New York Times, February 28, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/technology/china-united-states-artificial-intelligence.html.
10. Ben Jiang, "China Said to Fall Short of Matching US Advances in AI Owing to 'Many Challenges in Theory and Technologies,'" South China Morning Post, March 15, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3255545/china-said-fall-short-matching-us-advances-ai-owing-many-challenges-theory-and-technologies.
11. Colleen McClain et al., How Americans View Data Privacy (Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center, 2023), https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2023/10/PI_2023.10.18_Data-Privacy_FINAL.pdf.
12. Yu Cheng, "Experts Confident Nation Can Close Sino-US AI Gap," China Daily, March 21, 2024, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202403/21/WS65fb6c00a31082fc043bdd09.html.
13. Weilan Zhang, "Beijing Launches AI Public Platform as Demand Mounts for Computing Power," Global Times, April 8, 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1310215.shtml.
Please note: The above contents only represent the views of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.
This article is from the April issue of TI Observer (TIO), which focuses on the concept of "new quality productive forces" and tries to interpret its theoretical grounds and strategic importance. If you are interested in knowing more about the April issue, please click here:
http://www.taiheinstitute.org/UpLoadFile/files/2024/4/29/1720023057288b81-e.pdf
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