Introduction : Mr. Rashid Alimov, Senior Fellow of Taihe Institute and Secretary General of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (2016-2018), delivered a speech at the “2019 Annual Conference for Dialogues and Cooperation of the Belt and Road Chambers of Commerce and Associations”.
The following is the transcribed version of Mr. Alimov’s keynote speech.
Dear Mr. Chairman,
Dear colleagues:
First of all, let me express my deep gratitude to the Conference Organizers for their invitation and traditional hospitality. For me, its a great honor and privilege to speak today in front of such respectable audience.
The outgoing year is of great importance for further development of the Initiative. In this past spring, the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held in Beijing. I was fortunate enough to be one of the delegates to attend this global forum, which opened a new historical page of the Initiative. Let me share some of my thoughts on the Initiative, its achievements and challenges.
First, within five years, the Initiative has received the broadest international support. Let me remind you that the conference was attended by delegates from 150 countries and 92 international organizations. As of August 2019, 136 countries and 30 international bodies have signed 195 documents on cooperation with China within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Second, the golden rule of the Initiative is “Joint consultation, joint construction and joint use.” The key in the “golden rule” is the word “joint”. This rule is strictly observed by all parties, which is why it has already generated tangible results.
According to the World Bank, the economies of the BRI account for 40% of global exports of goods. From 2013 to 2018, China's foreign trade turnover with countries along the Belt and Road Route (BRR) marked 6.5 trillion USD. 244 thousand jobs were created in these countries. Cumulatively, it paid over 2 billion USD in taxes. 82 foreign trade and economic zones have been created. At the end of 2018, direct Chinese investment in the countries along the BRR exceeded 90 billion USD. In the first eight months of this year alone, Chinese companies invested about 9 billion USD in 53 countries along the BRR.
However, it is very important to know that the BRI is not a one-way street. China's BRI partner countries, in turn, have already invested more than 40 billion USD in the Chinese economy, and a growing increase of demand in China will strengthen this trend. The development of transport interconnectivity and the further improvement of the business environment in China will stimulate this process.
Third, participation in the implementation of the Initiative allows partner countries to combine national interests with regional interests; national development strategies with regional development and beyond. This is especially important for landlocked countries. A vivid example is the countries of Central Asia.
Fourth, strategic investments in the creation of cross-border infrastructure contribute to the development of transport interconnectivity, international trade, and the building of industrial potential in the partner countries of the Initiative.
According to experts, the Transport Corridor of the BRI will help solve two critical problems. On the one hand, it will reduce travel time, and on the other hand will ensure the growth of trade and investment. Travel time should be decreased by 12%, and trade volume should increase from 3 to 10%.
It is obvious that the Initiative opens a new window of opportunities for countries with developed agriculture, and particular for those markets with abundant fruits and vegetables. It is also important to see that low-income countries have received significant growth in direct investment inflows, thanks to new transport arteries. The World Bank estimates this growth will be at 7.6%.
Nevertheless, the most important lies in the social significance of the Initiative. That is, transport projects and trade will help nearly 40 million people to get out of poverty. This is a great contribution to the tackling of this problem throughout the world.
Fifth, the initiative broadens the possibilities of maintaining and developing the dialogues between cultures and civilizations; enriches cooperation in science and education, humanitarian exchanges and public diplomacy.
In what scenario will the Initiative develop in the near future? Morgan Stanley Bank estimates that BRI spending will be 1.3 trillion USD in total by 2027. It is also important to note that trade turnover with BRI partners increases by 4% annually on average and over the past six years amounted to 27.4% of China's total foreign trade. Against the backdrop of the global economy, whose growth is slowing down, this is a very positive result.
Next, the partners of the Initiative have great development potential. Trade in the economies of the BRI is 30% lower than its potential, and the Direct Investment Rate is 70% lower than its potential. According to the World Bank, the economies of these countries account for about 40% of global exports of goods and 35% of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
At a new stage, the Initiative will develop in a world, that is changing fantastically quickly and dangerously. How to minimize risks and ensure success for the BRI?
First of all, it is important to analyze the achievements and problems that arise during the implementation of the BRI. According to the American RWR Advisory Group, as of mid-summer 2018, 86% of projects have been implemented without any problems. Is it a lot or a little? For example, the share of successful projects of the Asian Development Bank was 64.9%, and the share of successful projects of the World Bank in Asia was 78.3%.
However, it is important to remember that the history of the Initiative is just beginning. For the past 9 months of 2019, in the 61 countries along the BRR, Chinese companies signed 3,884 contracts, amounting 77.8 billion USD. This is 27.7% more year-on-year. Difficulties can be expected in any of these projects. However, it is necessary to consolidate success, and not allow "dizziness" from it.
It is also important to expand the circle of friends of the Initiative among the media, especially in countries where projects are being implemented.
The BRI provides hundreds of bridges of friendship built in Asia and Africa, Europe and wherever the BRR passes.
Each of you is an active conductor of the Initiative.
Each of you makes a personal contribution to the cooperation between peoples and countries on three continents of the planet.
It can be argued that each of you is a Goodwill Ambassador of the Initiative. This is a very honorable and responsible mission.
With all my heart, I wish the conference a success.
Thank You!
—————————————————————
ON TIMES WE FOCUS.
Should you have any questions, please contact us at public@taiheglobal.org
