The Belt and Road Initiative is the most attractive interconnection concept in the world. Europe stretches from a booming Asia-Pacific economic circle in the east to a mature and developed European economic circle in the west, therefore, it naturally becomes an important participant within the Belt and Road framework. Central and eastern European countries, Greece, Cyprus and other countries play a role as a gateway to European hinterland from Asia. European countries have certain commonalities in the development of the Five Connectivity, and they also possess “European characteristics” in certain areas.
The Five Connectivity indexes for 2018 cover 36 European countries along the Belt and Road, including the 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe，which are the member states of the mechanism of "16+1 cooperation" between China and the Central and Eastern European countries, and other 20 countries ,such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, etc. (since the new 20 countries covered by the Five Connectivity indexes include the United Kingdom, France, Germany and some southern European countries such as Italy, Greece, and some Nordic countries, such as Sweden, Norway, Iceland, the author generally refers to the newly added 20 European countries as the 20 Western European countries). The 36 European countries have an average score of 75.1 on the Five Connectivity indexes，slightly higher than the average score of 55.25 of the 94 countries along the Belt and Road. The 20 Western European countries and the 16 CEE countries score an average of 58.38 and 52.28 respectively. Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe are both at the level of good cooperation region and fail to reach the level of inter-connectivity region.
Compared with other regions, Europe gets a middling ranking on the Five Connectivity Indexes Among the 8 regions assessed, the 20 Western European countries rank third, second only to Southeast Asia （63.76）and Central Asia and Mongolia (60.47), higher than Russia and the surrounding countries (57.61) and other regions. Europe ranks fourth as a whole，just behind Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Mongolia, and Russia and the surrounding countries. The 16 CEE countries (52.28) rank sixth after South Asia (52.88) by just 0.6 points. However, among the 8 regions assessed, except that Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Mongolia have reached the level of inter-connectivity, Oceania still stays at the level of potential for cooperation, and most regions are at the level of good cooperation. That indicates that the overall level of the Five Connectivity of Europe, although is not as good as those of neighbors of China, is generally at average level. In some specific fields, the 20 Western European countries have obvious advantages in trade and public support, and Central and Eastern Europe enjoys relatively stronger performances in policy coordination.
From the perspective of nations, the differences among the 36 European countries are obvious. These include the 2 smooth cooperation nations, 9 interconnected nations, 14 good cooperation nations, 11 nations of potential for cooperation, and no nations of weak cooperation. European average score is close to Austria (55.90). What is clear from the data is that European countries are at varying levels of the Five Connectivity, due to differences in size, geographical location, strategic influence, and degree of closeness to China. Meanwhile, in terms of the Five Connectivity, only 16 of the 36 European countries are at the level above the average of the countries along the Belt and Road, indicating that the potential for the Five Connectivity between China and the most European countries needs to be discovered urgently. From the perspective of nations, the above 4 types of countries in Europe all have some obvious characteristics. The smooth cooperation nations include Germany and the United Kingdom, which are both major European Union powers. With growing economic interdependence, the two countries and China have no obvious shortcomings in the Five Connectivity, and have established strategic partnerships, and have a complete top-level design of political relations and cooperation systems and mechanisms at all levels, and have close contacts in political, economic, cultural and people-to-people exchange fields. In the meantime, Germany and the United Kingdom score 18.24 and 18.17 respectively on the people-to-people bonds, ranking second only to Thailand (18.31) among all 94 countries. Therefore, Germany and the United Kingdom are generally rated as the smooth cooperation nations. The 9 interconnected nations include 5 important established powers in Western Europe (Italy, France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands), the 3 CEE countries with outstanding cooperation with China in various fields in recent years (Hungary, Poland and Serbia), and Switzerland. The 5 Western European countries have witnessed a balanced development of the Five Connectivity. Italy, France and Belgium even score close to 10 on some their own weak projects. Among the 3 CEE countries, the Five Connectivity has achieved a balanced development in Poland and Hungary, which are the “overall smooth” countries. The level of policy coordination between the 3 CEE countries and China has achieved a high development and has entered the Top 10 among the 94 countries assessed. Owing to its financial and tourism advantages, Switzerland is outstanding in the fields of financial integration and people-to-people bonds.
The 14 good cooperation nations are Sweden, Czech Republic, Ireland, Denmark, Austria, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Greece, and Estonia, including 5 Nordic countries, 5 CEE countries and 4 other European countries. The main characteristic of the above-mentioned countries is that their individual advantages are obvious. For example, the 5 CEE countries and Greece score more than 10 in the field of policy coordination, which is close to or exceeds some Western European countries, such as Britain, France and Germany. The 5 Nordic countries score generally higher in the field of unimpeded trade and people-to-people bond. Meanwhile, the 14 good cooperation nations also have obvious defects on their own shorts, for example, Greece, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria and other nations have significantly lower scores in the field of financial integration.
The 11 nations of potential for cooperation include Croatia, Latvia, Slovakia, Malta, Slovenia, Portugal, Albania, Montenegro, Cyprus, Bosnia Herzegovina, and Macedonia. Among them，except the 3 small Southern European courtiers of Portugal, Malta and Cyprus，other countries are all CEE countries. That from one side reflects that the overall Five Connectivity level of CEE countries is relatively low and has larger discrepancies. From the perspective of superiority domain，except that Croatia, Latvia and Slovakia score higher than 10 on 3 indexes ,and are all at the level of close to good cooperation nations, the scores of the remaining countries reach 10 on only 1 or 2 indexes, indicating that while the nations of potential for cooperation have a certain basis for development in promoting the Five Connectivity, they all lack obvious strengths and need to overcome several shortcomings vigorously.
Overall, European countries have a good foundation for the development of the Five Connectivity and are in the middle level among all the countries along the Belt and Road. The internal diversity of Europe is weaker than that of other regions, but it is still the acute issue in promoting the balanced development of the Five Connectivity. The smooth cooperation nations and the interconnected nations have enjoyed a high level of the Five Connectivity and a balanced development of all the related fields. The good cooperation nations and the nations of potential for cooperation are not prominent in the areas with generally comparative advantages, but if they pay attention to that there will be much room for improvement.
In the field of policy communication, the CEE countries are not only ahead of other European countries, but also in the ranks of advanced development among the countries along the Belt and Road. The 16 CEE countries have an average score of 13.02 in the field of policy coordination, higher than the average score of the countries along the Belt and Road（10.96）and the 20 countries in Western Europe（10.03). Europe gets an overall score of 11.36, highlighting that under the guidance of the mechanism of "16+1 cooperation", the CEE countries have driven Europe ahead in the field of policy coordination among the countries along the Belt and Road, which is also the most positive aspect of the Five Connectivity between China and CEE countries.
Judging from the 9 main indicators of policy coordination, the major powers of Europe have advantages in the basic elements of bilateral relations, while the CEE countries perform better in the cooperation mechanism and willingness to cooperate on the Belt and Road Initiative. For example, in terms of frequency of high-level exchanges, Germany and the United Kingdom score 0.6; Poland and Serbia, which President Xi Jinping visited in 2016, score 0.4; most other European countries score 0 or 0.2. The main reason is that the leaders of Germany and the United Kingdom, which are major European powers, have more opportunities to communicate on key international issues and meet on bilateral and multilateral occasions with the leaders of China. Compared with smaller countries, this is a structural advantage in political coordination. This kind of advantage in the basic elements is also reflected in the indicator of the number of embassies and consulates in China, on which the major European countries such as Britain, France, Germany and Spain, have obvious advantages over smaller powers. On the indicator of partnership, the countries that have established strategic partnerships with China all score above 0.47, and Serbia even scores 1 because of its special relationship with China. China's national interests are more intertwined with those of the major powers of Europe, and the degree of interdependence in international cooperation is relatively higher, therefore both sides are also more inclined to establish strategic partnerships. In terms of bilateral political relations with China, the major powers of Europe on the whole have a more solid base than the CEE countries.
The CEE countries are much more active in their willingness to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative. For example, the 16 CEE countries score an average of 0.41 on the indicator of strategic interfaces under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, while the 20 Western European countries scored zero. For another example, the 16 CEE countries score an average of 0.9 on the indicator of documents signed under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, while the 20 Western European countries score an average of 0.22. These scores on the above-mentioned indicators reflect two trends. First, the mechanism of "16+1 cooperation" has become an important platform for China and CEE countries to advance interconnection, pragmatic cooperation and strategic synergy, resulting in the overall improvement of policy coordination on the Belt and Road Initiative between China and CEE countries. Second, due to economic development, foreign relations and other considerations, the CEE countries are more active in policy coordination, pragmatic cooperation and establishing a formal bilateral cooperation mechanism under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. However, other European countries, especially the major powers like Britain, France and Germany, on the whole take a cautious, or even a passive and defensive attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative, so the level of strategic docking and document signing is lower.
In the field of facilities connectivity, with an average score of 10.05, European countries are relatively mature and stable. The 20 Western European countries score an average of 10.25, and the 16 CEE countries score an average of 9.8，both of which are higher than the average score of 9.7 of the countries along the Belt and Road. Moreover, 5 of the top 10 on the indicator of facilities connectivity are European countries, indicating that in the terms of infrastructure, Europe has a more solid base than the developing regions.
However, Europe has a larger internal diversity of the level of facilities connectivity. One is regional differences. The infrastructure of Western European countries is obviously more complete and has stronger connectivity than that of CEE countries because of their different levels of economic development. The 20 Western European countries and the 16 CEE countries score 0.65 and 0.46 respectively on the indicator of quality of overall infrastructure; score 0.6 and 0.375 on average respectively on the indicator of level of connectivity of transport facilities; score 0.92 and 0.81 on average respectively on the indicator of popularity of Internet; score 0.83 and 0.66 on average respectively on the indicator of export of ICT services. This indicates that development basis of infrastructure is one of the determinants of the whole of Europe's leading level, and the biggest difference between Western European countries and CEE countries.
Second, geographical factors lead to differentiation of the degree of connectivity. The core of Europe, such as Germany, France, Spain, Poland and other countries, all reach the highest score of 1 on the indicator of level of connectivity of transport facilities. The scores on this indicator decrease gradually in Europe with the level of development and geographical alienation. The Western Balkan countries generally score 0-0.33, and Iceland, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus and other island countries isolated from the European continent, and Norway all score 0.33, driving down the overall level of facilities connectivity of the above countries to a certain degree.
Third, the level of connectivity with China is uneven among European countries. Only France, Germany, Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia score 1, while the other European countries scored 0 on the indicator of China-EU railway. The 20 Western European countries and the 16 CEE countries score 0.506 and 1 respectively on the indicator of infrastructure level of bilateral communications. This indicates that on the one hand, CEE countries have a higher level of cooperation on communication infrastructure with China than West European countries, partly because West European countries have been blocking the access of Chinese technology and investment; on the other hand, it is urgent to expand the connectivity of China-EU railway, the density of stops in Europe and the diversity of routes etc.
Although the EU is China's largest trading partner, its level of unimpeded trade is not outstanding compared with other countries along the Belt and Road. On this indicator, the countries along the Belt and Road score an average of 12.35; European countries score an average of 12.38; the 20 Western European countries average is 13.3, and the 16 CEE countries average is 11.23. Europe as a whole is at an average level compared with countries along the Belt and Road. Only Germany and the Netherlands are among the top 10 countries on the indicator of the level of unimpeded trade.
In the field of unimpeded trade, European countries mainly show three characteristics. First, economic volume determines the basis of trade and investment cooperation. Britain, France, Germany and other EU larger economies score above European average, and far above the scores of other smaller European economies on the indicators of total bilateral trade volume, total bilateral investment volume, projects contracted by China in foreign nations, and China foreign labor cooperation etc., indicating that market and economic volume are still one of the important foundations for unimpeded trade. Second, although the trade, investment and labor standards within the EU and among European countries are similar, there are still large gaps in the investment environment and market access. For example，France scores far below Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and other European Union countries on the indicators of trade barrier, investment barrier, business environment, convenience of bilateral trade, and labor force market control, which demonstrates that the French implement more stricter market access rules than other European Union countries. A similar picture is seen in Slovakia and Portugal. At the same time, the UK and Switzerland, who are known for their open economy, are also significantly lower than the average level of the European region on the above indicators, indicating that the two countries have a low degree of connection with the trade and investment rules of EU single market.
In the field of financial integration, though some European countries have obvious advantages, there are large shortcomings in the European region as a whole, and apparent deficiencies in most of the European countries. The average score of Europe is 9.59, which is lower than the average of 9.88 of the countries along the Belt and Road. The average score of 10.72 of the 20 Western European countries is slightly higher than the average. With a score of 8.18, the 16 CEE countries have a relatively obvious shortcoming. In the 2018 Report on Five Connectivity Indexes, the 16 countries of Estonia, Austria, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Denmark, Finland, Montenegro, Croatia, Latvia, Romania, Macedonia, Norway, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Greece are listed as “the type of countries which have financial weaknesses”, indicating that problems occur more commonly in the field of financial integration in European countries, especially in Central and Eastern Europe countries, and small and medium-sized European countries. In the field of financial integration, the United Kingdom (18.44), Hungary (15.47), Switzerland (15.31) and Germany (13.41) perform better, ranking 3rd, 11th, 14th and 19th respectively among the countries along the Belt and Road. The main advantage of these countries is the smooth bilateral financial cooperation. With a significantly higher score than other European countries on the Tier II indicators of financial cooperation, the four countries are also prominent on the Tier III indicators of cooperation currency exchange, cooperation in financial regulation, and cooperation among development banks. For example, China has signed currency-swap agreements with Switzerland, Hungary, and the United Kingdom. Germany, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland are all inaugural members of the AIIB. China and these countries are also strengthening cooperation in the supervision and communication of monetary policy.
At the same time, in terms of financial environment, European countries generally have certain advantages, with scores between 2.43-4 and an average score of 3.29. On the indicators of total savings, size of public debts and currency robustness, the European countries have similar scores. This is mainly due to the fact that compared with the emerging market countries, European countries have more robust monetary and fiscal systems, more complete institutional systems to control public debt problems, and stronger anti-risk capabilities. At the same time, major European currencies such as the Euro, the British Pound and the Swiss Franc are international currencies, and other countries' currencies are usually pegged to the Euro or the Swiss franc, making the European countries less at risk from the fluctuations of foreign exchange than emerging market countries. Therefore, the maturity of the financial environment and corresponding systems will provide a better basis for improving the level of China-Europe financial integration.
In the field of people-to-people bonds, the 20 Western European countries score 14.06 on average, much higher than the average score of 12.33 of the countries along the Belt and Road. Western European countries have driven the whole Europe (12.54 on average) ahead. However, the 16 CEE countries have an average of 10.63, generally behind the average score of the countries along the Belt and Road. From the perspective of country, some Western European countries have performed well. There are 12 countries scoring above 14. Germany (18.24), Britain (18.17), France (17.83) and Italy (16.86) have entered top 10, and some CEE countries, such as Romania (12.37), Serbia (12.36), Poland (13.67) and Hungary (13.20) also show high levels in this field. From the perspective of tourism activities, Western European countries are clearly more dominant. Germany, Britain, France, Spain and Italy are still the most popular destinations for Chinese tourists to travel to in Europe. In recent years, the Czech Republic and Greece have reached similar levels. In terms of the number of tourists to China and convenience of tourist visa, European countries generally lag behind. Except that Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which grant Chinese citizens of visa-free travel, score 1 on the indicator of convenience of tourist visa, other European countries all score 0.33, indicating that there is still plenty of room for improvement in Europe. In terms of exchanges in science and education, due to the advantages of education and scientific research, the Western European countries, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, clearly score higher than the CEE countries on the indicator of scientific and developmental cooperation. At the same time, due to the advantages of economic strength and international outlook, Western Europe performs better on the index of number of foreign students in China.
In terms of unofficial exchanges, because ordinary Chinese are more familiar with Western European countries, which are more visible in international affairs, the score of these countries are far higher than those of the CEE countries on the indicators of attentions among netizens, number of friendly cities, and public opinion intercommunication etc. However, there are also bright spots to some CEE countries in unofficial exchanges. For example, with the support of the “16+1” cooperation mechanism for think tanks and academic exchanges, Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Romania, Hungary and other CEE countries have narrowed the gaps with Germany, France, Belgium and other western European countries on the indicator of exchanges between think-tanks, and Serbia has even caught up with Germany, France and other countries.
On the whole, people-to-people bonds are mainly influenced by the level of science and education in the country, mutual familiarity between Chinese and the people of the country, and attractiveness of tourism. These variables have become the main reason for the higher scores of Western European countries. However, it is worth noting that Romania, Serbia, Poland and other CEE countries have significant foundations for the continuous development of people-to-people bonds due to their historical origins with China and the guidance of “16+1” cooperation and high-level policies in recent years.
Since President Xi Jinping proposed the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road in Kazakhstan and Indonesia respectively, the Belt and Road Initiative has made positive progress in Europe.
In terms of policy coordination, since the 18th National Congress, the leaders of China and European countries have maintained frequent high-level exchanges of visits, and extensive communications on bilateral and multilateral occasions. President Xi Jinping visited EU headquarters, the three major countries of Britain, France and Germany, and countries in the sub regions of Central and Eastern Europe, Northern Europe and Southern Europe. China has established a strategic partnership with the Czech Republic and Spain, and signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Belt and Road Initiative with the CEE countries and Greece.
In terms of facilities connectivity, China and European countries have made important progress in cooperation on maritime, onshore, air, network and energy infrastructures. Some initial successes have been achieved in the construction of the Greek Piraeus Port, the Hungarian-Serbia Railway, and the Bosnia and Herzegovina North-South Expressway Project The 8 China-European train lines have been opened, and the number of operations has exceeded 10,000. Direct flights have been launched between China and Warsaw, Prague, Madrid and other European cities. Huawei and other telecommunications companies have extensively participated in the construction of national communication networks and base stations in some European countries. Some energy projects such as the Bosnia and Herzegovina thermal power station, and the Romanian Deva thermal power station, have also yielded progress. In the field of unimpeded trade, the EU is now China's largest trading partner and China is the second largest trading partner of the EU. The bilateral trade in goods between China and the EU has increased by 16.1 percent in 2013-2017. The stock of China’s direct investment in the EU has increased from USD40.1 billion in 2013 to USD86 billion in 2017.
In the field of financial integration, China and European countries have been deepening their cooperation. The 17 European countries including Britain, France and Germany have become members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The financial services institutions, under the framework of the Belt and Road, such as the Silk Road Fund, China Development Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, have already carried out substantive cooperation with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in the countries along the route. China-CEEC special loans, China-CEEC funds and other financing mechanisms have been involved in the financing of infrastructure projects in Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries.
In terms of people-to-people bonds, European countries, especially Greece, and the CEE countries, have become the emerging destinations for Chinese tourists to Europe. The Confucius Institute and the Think Tanks Cooperation Network on the Belt and Road have developed rapidly in Hungary, Serbia and other countries. Some European countries even have set up think tanks that specialize in the Belt and Road.
Looking into the future, with the Belt and Road Initiative taking root in Europe, European political, business, and strategic circles have changed their understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative from the puzzle and doubt toward “approach, contact, and seeking cooperation”. The cooperation between China and European countries in various fields under the framework of Belt and Road Initiative will also be deeper, more pragmatic and meticulous, and some flagship projects will continue to be advanced. At the same time, however, due to its complex situation in China policy, geopolitics and international order, the EU attempts not only to chase interests but also to achieve “balance” regarding the Belt and Road Initiative，and attempts to seek "equivalence", "fairness" and "European characteristics" in terms of rules, economic interests, and policy leadership by formulating new regional strategy and new laws and regulations on economy, trade and investment, which may affect mutual trust and the smooth and pragmatic cooperation between China and the EU.
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