Interpretations of Five Connectivity Indexes of Eurasian Countries——FIVE CONNECTIVITY INDEX REPORT(2018)

April 24, 2019
About the author: Ding Xiaoxing[1], Research Professor, Executive Director of Institute of Euraisan Studies,China Institute of Contemporary International Relations

 

Eurasia is a key area for the Belt and Road Initiative (or BRI for short). President Xi Jinping put forward the Belt and Road Initiative during his visit to Kazakhstan in 2013, which was widely supported by Eurasian countries. Over the past five years, the Belt and Road Initiative has taken root in Eurasia. China and Eurasian countries have made significant progress in Five Connectivity. Strategic communication has become increasingly close, project construction has advanced steadily, bilateral trade has continued to grow, financial cooperation is on the rise, and people-to-people exchanges have continued to deepen. Russia tops Eurasian countries in terms of Five Connectivity Indexes, and Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Ukraine, Belarus and Uzbekistan all have high scores.

 
Table 7-1: Five Connectivity Indexes of Eurasian countries along the Belt and Road

 

Russia scored as high as 86.24 in Five Connectivity Index of 2018, reflecting the high-level operation of the China-Russia comprehensive strategic cooperation partnership. In mid-June 2018, Putin visited China and attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Qingdao Summit. In mid-September, President Xi attended the Eastern Economic Forum. Leaders of the two countries also met in multilateral diplomatic forums such as the "BRICS Summit" and the G20 Summit. In early November, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited China and attended the first China International Import Expo. Russia scored 18.07 in policy coordination because of the establishment of several intergovernmental cooperation committees, frequent meetings at all levels, and close strategic communication, which have promoted the in-depth development of practical cooperation between the two countries. In May 2018, China and the Eurasian Economic Union signed Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union, thus facilitating the early fruit of strategic alignment. Within this framework, China and Russia have deepened their strategic cooperation, and the two countries have witnessed rapid development of pragmatic cooperation in the fields of economy and trade, investment, energy, machinery manufacturing, high-tech and agriculture.

 

In terms of facilities connectivity, the Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang Railway Bridge across the Sino-Russian border was closed in mid-October 2018 and will be put into operation in 2019. As the first cross-river railway bridge over the Sino-Russian border river Heilongjiang, the Tongjiang Bridge will have an annual freight throughput of 21 million tons and become another important international corridor connecting Russia and Europe. The Heihe-Heilongjiang Bridge will also be completed in 2019, making it easier for China and Russia to connect to each other. On January 1, 2018, the second line of the Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline was officially put into commercial operation, and the volume of Russian oil imported from the pipeline will increase from 15 million tons to 30 million tons annually. In the first 10 months of 2018, Russia's crude oil supply to China increased by 33 percent year-on-year, making Russia the largest source of crude oil import to China. The Sino-Russian East Line Natural Gas Pipeline Project is under construction as planned, and is expected to supply gas to China at the end of 2019. China and Russia are holding consultations on the "Western Line" natural gas pipeline, and an agreement is expected to be reached. In mid-July, the supply of liquefied natural gas to China from the Yamal Project arrived in China by tanker from the Arctic channel, opening a new chapter in the supply of liquefied natural gas to China from the Yamal Project. Bridges and pipelines have become ties of mutual benefit, friendship and cooperation between China and Russia, connecting the two countries closely. Therefore, Russia scored 18.52 on facility connectivity.

 

China has been Russia's largest trading partner for eight consecutive years, and the trade volume between China and Russia is expected to exceed USD100 billion in 2018, which is of landmark significance. From January to October, Sino-Russian trade reached USD87.2 billion, an increase of 28.2 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, China's exports to Russia reached USD 39.27 billion, an increase of 13 percent on the same period last year, and its imports from Russia reached USD 47.97 billion, an increase of 44 percent on the same period last year. Sino-Russian trade shows the following characteristics. First, China's proportion in Russia's foreign trade is increasing. Trade with China accounted for 10.54 percent of Russia's total foreign trade in 2013. This percentage rose to 12.08 percent in 2015 and will rise to more than 15 percent in 2018. Second, Russia has achieved a surplus. China had a surplus of USD 15 billion with Russia in 2015. The volume narrowed to USD 2 billion in 2017 and in the first 10 months of 2018, Russia had a surplus of USD 8 billion, demonstrating the importance of the Chinese market to Russia. Third, the Sino-Russian trade structure is becoming more balanced. The export of mechanical and electrical products to China, which is of concern to Russia, has also been improving, and the export of mechanical and electrical products to China has been increasing. Cross-border e-commerce trade between China and Russia is particularly active, and Russia has become the second largest exporter of cross-border e-commerce to China. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that if the two sides actively promote cooperation in various fields, the two countries are fully capable of achieving the goal of bilateral trade volume of USD 200 billion. Russia scored 15.47 on unimpeded trade.

 

In September 2018, President Xi attended the First China-Russia Local Leaders' Dialogue Meeting during the Eastern Economic Forum, and pointed out that in the new era, China-Russia local cooperation has met with new historic opportunities. In recent years, local cooperation between China and Russia has made breakthrough progress. From 2018 to 2019, China and Russia jointly decided to hold the Year of Local Cooperation and Exchange, and local cooperation between the two countries showed a strong momentum of development. In 2017, China's trade with the Russian Far East Federal District exceeded USD 7.7 billion. China has participated in more than 30 leap-forward development zones and free port projects in the Far East, with a planned investment of more than USD 4 billion. It has become Russia's largest trading partner and source of foreign investment in the Far East. Agricultural cooperation has become the highlight of China-Russia pragmatic cooperation. Russia has become the world's largest wheat exporter with sustained agricultural development in recent years. Russia's agricultural exports to China have also increased year by year. In 2017, China imported about USD 1.7 billion of Russian agricultural products, an increase of 11 percent over the same period last year. China mainly imports fish, seafood, vegetable oil, soybeans, wheat and so on. Since 2018, Sino-US trade frictions have remained at a stalemate, and US agricultural products to China have been greatly affected, from which Russia sees tremendous business opportunities and plans to significantly expand agricultural exports to China. Russian agricultural exports to China grew 35 percent in the first four months of 2018, according to Chinese customs’ statistics. In the future, while optimizing the agricultural trade structure, China and Russia will carry out extensive cooperation in the fields of agricultural investment and deep processing of agricultural products. Russia actively participated in the China International Import Expo held in Shanghai in early November, which provided a new growth point for Russia-China economic and trade cooperation and investment.

 

Sino-Russian cooperation in the financial field has also been expanding. By the end of 2018, six Chinese banks had branches and representative offices in Russia, and nine Russian banks had branches and representative offices in China. Russian companies have become the first along the Belt and Road to successfully issue panda bonds in China. China has announced the establishment of a 100 billion-Yuan Sino-Russian Regional Cooperation and Development Investment Fund to promote cooperation between Northeast China and the Russian Far East. In terms of financial integration, Russia scored 16.11, and China-Russia cooperation in the financial field still has great room for development.

 

People-to-people cooperation between China and Russia has been improving steadily. Over the past decade and more, China and Russia have held the National Year, the Language Year, the Tourism Year, the Youth Year and the Media Year, which have promoted mutual understanding and friendship between the people of the two countries. Tourism cooperation between China and Russia is particularly strong, with a large number of Chinese tourists coming to Russia during World Cup 2018 in Russia, becoming the largest source of tourists. Cross-border travel between China and Russia is extremely attractive, with the number of tourists climbing sharply after Vladivostok introduced electronic visas for foreign tourists, with 620,000 foreign tourists in 2017, mostly from China.

 

Figure 7-1: Distribution of standardized scores of Eurasian countries in policy coordination

 

Mongolia scored 71.43 in Five Connectivity Index. Mongolia's Prairie Road Initiative is highly compatible with the Belt and Road Initiative, and China and Mongolia have closely aligned their strategies in this regard, so as to comprehensively upgrade bilateral cooperation. In 2014, China, Mongolia and Russia proposed to jointly build the "Sino-Mongolia-Russia" economic corridor. In June 2016, China, Mongolia and Russia signed the "Planning Outline for the Construction of the Sino-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor". The areas of cooperation include transport infrastructure development and connectivity, port construction and customs, capacity and investment cooperation, economic and trade cooperation, people-to-people and cultural exchanges and cooperation, ecological and environmental cooperation, and cooperation in local and border areas. During the SCO Qingdao Summit in mid-June 2018, the leaders of the three countries had a meeting, during which President Xi pointed out that in recent years, based on China's Belt and Road, Russia's development strategy, especially the trans-Eurasian major corridor, and Mongolia's "Road to Development" initiative, China, Mongolia and Russia had been aligning with each other. They were relying on each other's geopolitical advantages as neighbors, to promote cooperation in a gradual and in-depth manner, and to achieve phased results. In the next stage, the three countries would take the promotion of key cooperation projects as the leading role, promote all-round cooperation, focus on the implementation of the Outline of the Plan for the Construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, promote the construction of the economic corridor, actively explore cooperation in infrastructure connectivity and other areas, and promote sub-regional cooperation in the adjacent regions of the three countries. In mid-September, President Xi met with Mongolian President Battulga in Vladivostok. President Xi once again stressed the need to continue to vigorously promote the interface between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Road to Development, and to give full play to the leading role of major projects in promoting practical cooperation between the two countries. Battulga said that Mongolia is ready to actively participate in the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, strengthen cooperation with China in trade, electricity, agriculture and animal husbandry, infrastructure construction and other areas, and promote the construction of Mongolia-China-Russia economic corridor. Mongolia scored 15.68 on policy coordination.

 

In the field of practical cooperation, China is Mongolia's largest trading and investment partner, accounting for about 65 percent of Mongolia's total foreign trade, with Sino-Mongolian trade volume of USD 6.6 billion in 2017. From January to September 2018, the trade volume between China and Mongolia was USD 5.2 billion, an increase of 24 percent over the same period last year. In August 2018, China and Mongolia decided to launch a joint feasibility study on a free trade agreement. At the end of September, the first meeting of the Joint Feasibility Study for a China-Mongolia Free Trade Agreement was held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on research methods, content, timetable, division of work and other core issues, and reached a lot of consensus. In early November, Mongolia's first interchange, the Ulan Bator Yarmag Interchange, was completed by the China Railway 20th Bureau. The interchange is located in the downtown area of Ulan Bator on the only way to the airport. The total investment for the project is about USD 30.26 million, which is funded by a gifted loan from China. With the in-depth strategic alignment between the Belt and Road Initiative and Mongolia's Road to Development strategy, more cooperation projects benefiting the Mongolian people will be implemented. Mongolia scores between 12 and 16 on Five Connectivity index, and is a country that cooperates closely with China under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Figure 7-2: Composition of Five Connectivity Indexes of Central Asian and Mongolian countries

 

The Central Asian region has been an important channel on the Silk Road since ancient times. The Belt and Road Initiative is highly compatible with the strategic interests of Central Asian countries and has been actively supported by these countries. In 2018, the Central Asian region as a whole remained stable, the economies of all countries developed steadily, relations between countries continued to improve, the first informal meeting of Central Asian leaders was held, cooperation among Central Asian countries continued to strengthen, and the willingness to cooperate with China was strong. All these factors were conducive to the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia. In terms of Five Connectivity Index, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan score 74.52, 56.69, 56.35, 55.86 and 48 respectively, and all of them are countries of close cooperation with China.

 

China and Central Asian countries enjoy a high level of strategic mutual trust and frequent high-level exchanges. In mid-June 2018, leaders of Central Asian countries came to China to attend the SCO Qingdao Summit. In mid-October, Premier Li Keqiang visited Tajikistan and attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Prime Minister's Meeting, where China had close strategic communication with other countries. In 2018, China and Kyrgyzstan established a comprehensive strategic partnership, and established a comprehensive strategic partnership with the four Central Asian countries, Central Asia becoming a strategic partnership area around China. At the bilateral level, China and Kazakhstan are closely aligned in strategy. In September 2016, China and Kazakhstan signed a cooperation plan for the alignment of the Silk Road Belt with the Bright Avenue new economic policy. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries are among the first countries to sign a Belt and Road cooperation agreement with China. Tajikistan has formulated a national development strategy for the period up to 2030, and Tajikistan has proposed that the Belt and Road Initiative be deeply aligned with its strategy for the year 2030. Therefore, Central Asian countries have a score of 12-17 on policy coordination, which means they belong to closely aligned countries.

 

At present, the connectivity between China and the Central Asian countries is becoming smoother and smoother. Located in the center of the Eurasian continent, Kazakhstan aims to use the Belt and Road to become the transportation and logistics center of the Eurasian continent. In 2018, there was a blowout growth in the CHINA RAILWAY Express, with the annual traffic expected to reach 5,000, and the volume of transit traffic to Kazakhstan also increased significantly. In the first 10 months of 2018, the volume of transit traffic across the border between China and Kazakhstan increased by 36 percent compared with the same period the previous year. Kazakhstan plans to raise transit transport revenues to USD 5 billion by 2020. The Sino-Kazakh Lianyungang logistics cooperation project has enabled Kazakhstan to gain access to the sea in the Asia-Pacific region. Wheat from Kazakhstan arrived in Lianyungang from Almaty in just six days and was shipped by sea to Southeast Asian countries. The China Railway Tunnel Group has helped Uzbekistan to build a 19-kilometer-long "Kamchick" railway tunnel, which has become an important part of the Anglian-Papua Railway. At the beginning of 2018, the Sino-Kyrgyz-Uzbek Highway International Freight Corridor was officially put into operation. This highway will start from Kashgar, Xinjiang, China in the east, pass through the city of Osh in the south of Kyrgyzstan, and reach Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, in the west, with a total length of 950 kilometers, and will become an important part of the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor. Chinese enterprises have built the Datken-Kemin power transmission and transformation project in Kyrgyzstan, helped Kyrgyzstan to build many roads and bridges, and are stepping up the construction of Phase II of the North-South Kyrgyzstan Highway. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are actively promoting the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project. Turkmenistan has taken a positive attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative. Turkmenistan has accelerated infrastructure construction, completed the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway, and accelerated the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan railway to promote the Central Asia-West Asia transport corridor. In terms of facilities connectivity, the Central Asian countries scored between 8 and 12 points, indicating that China and the Central Asian countries have achieved more results in connectivity under the Belt and Road initiative, but the potential remains to be explored.

 

In the field of unimpeded trade, the trade volume between China and Central Asian countries has increased rapidly in recent years. According to Chinese statistics, the trade volume between China and Kazakhstan was USD 14.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2018, an increase of 17.4 percent over the same period last year. China-Turkmenistan trade reached USD 6.23 billion, up 15.6 percent year-on-year; China-Uzbekistan trade reached USD 4.46 billion, up 54.8 percent year-on-year. China-Kyrgyzstan trade totalled USD 4.15 billion, down 2.1 percent year-on-year. China-Tajikistan trade totalled USD 1 billion, up 10.4 percent year-on-year. China and Kazakhstan have reached more than 50 production capacity cooperation projects with a total investment of USD 26.5 billion. Twelve projects involving USD 4 billion are under construction or start-up, including the Astana Airport Light Rail, Pavlodar Electrolytic Aluminium Plant and PetroChina Large Calibre Steel Tube Plant. Kazakhstan's first special cement plant (producing oil well cement and general-purpose cement) invested by China Gezhouba Group, will be completed and put into operation in December 2018, with an annual output of 1 million tons. China is Uzbekistan's largest source of investment and largest trading partner, and has maintained Uzbekistan's status as a major exporter of cotton and natural gas for many years. Uzbekistan has about 700 Chinese enterprises, covering energy, chemicals, infrastructure, industrial parks, agriculture, telecommunications, textiles, irrigation and many other industries. The Pengsheng Industrial Park in Kigak has been expanding in scale, creating many jobs for Uzbekistan and serving as a model for industrial investment cooperation between the two countries. By the end of 2017, there were 574 Chinese enterprises operating in Kyrgyzstan, including 177 joint ventures and 397 wholly foreign-owned enterprises. The number of Chinese-funded enterprises in Kyrgyzstan is second only to that of Russia. The five Central Asian countries all actively participated in the first China International Import Expo, and took measures to expand exports of agricultural products to China. Kazakhstan and China signed a roadmap for the export of 20 new agricultural products to China, including poultry products, horse meat, pork, live cattle and sheep, chilled meat, rapeseed, safflower seeds and buckwheat. In terms of energy cooperation, natural gas from Central Asia has become the main source of China's natural gas imports. In 2017, Central Asian countries supplied 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China through the Central Asia-China ABC natural gas line, of which Turkmenistan supplied more than 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China. At the end of 2017, China and Kazakhstan signed an agreement to supply 5 billion cubic meters of gas to China, and at the end of 2018, China and Kazakhstan reached an agreement to increase the gas supply to 10 billion cubic meters. The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline Line D is also under construction. By 2018, China will have become the world's largest natural gas importer, and Central Asia will become an important region for China to safeguard its energy security in the future. In terms of unimpeded trade, the scores of the Central Asian countries are all above 10, and the economic cooperation between China and the Central Asian countries has broad prospects.

 

In the field of cultural and people-to-people cooperation, China and the Central Asian countries are closed linked to each other, with numerous ethnic groups across borders and increasingly close cultural and people-to-people ties. In recent years, there has been a "Chinese fever" in the countries of Central Asia, and more and more young people are learning Chinese and learning about Chinese culture. Promoted by the Belt and Road Initiative, the fields of people-to-people and cultural cooperation have been expanding. Various forums and seminars have been held one after another, and the people of Central Asia have deepened their understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative. In November 2018, representatives of China and the five Central Asian countries gathered in Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan, to conduct academic exchanges on the protection of cultural relics in countries along the Belt and Road.

 

Figure 7-3: Radar chart of Five Connectivity Indexes of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova

 

Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova scored 62.64, 61.72 and 39.75 respectively on the Five Connectivity Index. Ukraine's political situation has gradually stabilized in recent years. Although the situation in eastern Ukraine is still at a stalemate, the conflict has not escalated further, Ukraine's economy has also begun to recover, and the Ukrainian government is strongly willing to participate in the Belt and Road cooperation. Ukraine, as an important country in the Eurasian region, has great potential for development, so it ranks high in the Five Connectivity Index of the Eurasian countries. Belarus is China's "comprehensive strategic partner". Sino-Belarusian relations have developed rapidly in recent years. Belarus has actively participated in the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the construction of the China-Belarus Industrial Park has progressed smoothly. Affected by many factors, Moldova's cooperation with China is still at a relatively low level, with bilateral trade volume of only over USD 100 million, and Moldova's political situation in recent years has not been stable, and its foreign policy has also swung between Europe and Russia, so Moldova ranks last in the Five Connectivity Index of the Eurasian countries. It is almost the blank spot of the Belt and Road in the Eurasian region.

 

Situated in the east-west link between Asia and Europe, Ukraine can serve as a bridge between Europe, Asia and the Middle East, so Ukraine is keen to improve its infrastructure through participation in the Belt and Road Initiative. In early November 2018, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Trade Mikhail Kubiv said at the China-Ukraine Economic and Trade Forum, that China and Ukraine have great potential for cooperation in green agriculture, infrastructure, aviation, machinery manufacturing and logistics. Ukraine is further improving its business environment and is committed to building an innovation-driven modern economy, hoping to attract more Chinese investors to invest in Ukraine. In recent years, China-Uzbekistan economic and trade cooperation has been expanding. In the first three quarters of 2018, China-Uzbekistan trade volume was USD 7.1 billion, an increase of 31.4 percent over the same period last year. In early April, China Machinery and Equipment Engineering Corp. signed a contract with Donbas Fuel and Energy Corp., Ukraine's largest private energy company, to build a 200-megawatt solar power plant in central Ukraine. In early September, China Electric Power Construction Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as China Electric Power Construction) formally signed an EPC contract with Norwegian NBT Company for a 250 MW wind power project in Sivash, Ukraine, with a contract value of 292 million euros, which will become the largest roadbed wind farm in Europe upon completion.

 

At present, the focus of China-Belarus cooperation is to jointly build the China-Belarus Industrial Park, known as the "Pearl on the Silk Road", which has received strong support from the leaders of China and Belarus. Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, signed a special presidential decree on tax, land and other preferential policies for enterprise, entering that park in the form of the country's top legislature. The China-Belarus Industrial Park is the largest overseas industrial park in which Chinese enterprises participate in the construction. It is reported that 37 enterprises from various countries have entered the park, with a total investment of about USD 1.1 billion. Other Sino-Belarusian cooperation projects are also progressing smoothly. Belarus Geely Automobile Co., Ltd. has sold more than 20,000 locally assembled passenger cars; the Horizon appliances produced by Midea's local joint venture sell well in Middle Eastern countries. The Chinese enterprises have participated in the transformation of the power grid and the construction of hydropower stations in Belarus, thus speeding up the development of the local power sector; Chinese enterprises have completed the Minsk-Gomel-Zhilobin Highway Upgrading Project, which has become a model project for practical cooperation in the field of infrastructure construction through the joint construction of a trans-European transport corridor between the two countries. In addition, the Chinese enterprises have completed electrification projects for three railways between Belarus and Lithuania, and participated in projects such as CDMA, national transmission network, IP backbone network and 3G wireless network in Belarus. In early November, Belarus sent more than 80 enterprises to China International Import Expo, including more than half of the agricultural and food production enterprises. More than 50 Belarusian dairy producers and meat processing enterprises have been allowed to export to China. Since the beginning of this year, Belarus' exports of dairy and meat products to China have increased significantly. On November 8, the Belarus-Chongqing Railway started goes two-way with 5-million-Yuan worth of Belarusian dairy products shipped to China. In the field of people-to-people cooperation, an exhibition of Chinese films was held in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, in early October. Cui Qiming, Chinese ambassador to Belarus, pointed out that in recent years, China and Belarus have held a series of people-to-people and cultural exchanges and cooperation activities, which have enhanced mutual understanding and friendship between the two peoples. In particular, 10 August 2018, the Agreement between the government of the People's Republic of China and the government of the Republic of Belarus on the Mutual Exemption of Visas for Persons Holding Ordinary Passports has entered into force, Chinese citizens holding valid ordinary passports can enter Belarus visa-free and stay in Belarus for no more than 30 days, a total of not more than 90 days each year, becoming the first Eurasian country to grant visa-free access to China, which has a strong positive effect.

 

Moldova scored lower on the Five Connectivity Index, reflecting the fact that cooperation between China and Moldova lags behind. In the first three quarters of 2018, bilateral trade between China and Moldova amounted to only USD 110 million, and bilateral cooperation lacked major projects. In fact, Moldova has great geographic advantages. It is located at the junction of eastern and western Europe and has signed a free trade agreement with the European Union. Moldova has a strong desire for development and hopes that Chinese enterprises can invest in Moldova. It is with this in mind that China and Moldova signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Launch of China-Moldova Free Trade Agreement Negotiations at the end of 2017, formally launching negotiations on a China-Moldova free trade agreement. In the future, with the stability of Moldova's domestic situation and the continuous improvement of its investment environment, it is believed that China-Moldova cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative will continue to expand.

 

 

Figure 7-4: Illustration of ratio of contribution in terms of Five Connectivity Indexes of the South Caucasus

 

The South Caucasus - Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - scored 52.97, 52.79 and 47.18, respectively in Five Connectivity Index. Located at the crossroads of the Eurasian continent, between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, the South Caucasus has been an indispensable part of the Silk Road since ancient times and has been very active in participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. Georgia has signed an agreement with the European Union (EU) and opened up its foreign trade channels to the outside world. Economic cooperation between China and Georgia has been expanding in recent years. In the first three quarters of 2018, the trade volume between China and Georgia reached USD 850 million, an increase of 21 percent over the same period the previous year. China has become Georgia's third largest trading partner and one of the largest sources of investment, and it is rapidly warming up to become Georgia's second largest exporter of wine Georgia is rich in tourism resources, receiving 7.9 million foreign tourists in 2017, an increase of 17 percent compared with the same period the previous year. China-Georgia tourism cooperation has broad prospects. In 2018, China-Georgia Free Trade Area was officially launched, which is the first free trade area established between China and Eurasian countries, and is of symbolic significance. As a result, Georgia ranks highest among the three countries in terms of Five Connectivity Index.

 

Armenia's external situation is not very good in the three countries. Geographically, it is blockaded by Turkey in the west, and it is an enemy of Azerbaijan in the east. It suffered economic stagnation in recent years and political turmoil in 2018. However, China-Armenia relations have developed smoothly in recent years, and China has been Asia's second largest trading partner for many years. Asia is eager to take advantage of the Belt and Road Initiative to develop connectivity, promote economic development, and improve people's livelihood. In infrastructure construction, China Civil Engineering Corporation may participate in the construction of the Armenian-Iranian railway. In 2014, the government approved the Iran-Armenia railway construction plan. The total value of the project is approximately USD 3.5 billion, and the railway is 300 kilometers in total length. According to the preliminary plan, the railway will be completed in 2022. In the first three quarters of 2018, bilateral trade between China and Armenia amounted to USD 370 million, an increase of 20 percent over the same period last year.

 

Azerbaijan is rich in energy resources, but its economy has fallen into a difficult position in recent years due to the sharp drop in international oil prices. Azerbaijan sees the Belt and Road Initiative as an important way to diversify its economy and intends to vigorously develop its transport and logistics sectors. Azerbaijan has vigorously developed its East-West, North-South transport corridor. After the completion of the North-South corridor, the volume of goods transported through Azerbaijan will reach 10 million tons, and the volume of goods transported along the East-West transport line will reach 30 million tons, which will greatly tap the transit transport potential of Azerbaijan. The 832-kilometer Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, which was under construction for many years, was opened in 2017. It connects Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and has an annual transport capacity of 17 million tons. In the future, the railway will be combined with ferries from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through the port of Baku to form another important corridor linking the eastern and western parts of the Eurasian continent.

 

Overall, within the five years since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed, economic cooperation between China and Eurasian countries has entered a new period of rapid development. The Belt and Road Initiative is highly compatible with the strategic objectives of diversifying, industrializing and modernizing the economies of Eurasian countries, and is in the fundamental interests of their development. Eurasian countries are generally support and participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Eurasian region has also become an early harvest area for the Belt and Road Initiative. Strategic links between China and Eurasian countries have been constantly tightened, a large number of infrastructure projects have been gradually implemented, the scale of energy cooperation has been expanding, industrial park construction has been accelerated, and cooperation in the humanities and other fields has also developed rapidly. In the future, China and the Eurasian countries will work together steadily to promote the Belt and Road Initiative on the basis of equal cooperation and mutual benefit. The prospects for cooperation are very broad though, at the same time, it should be noted that, some countries in the Eurasian region still have problems such as political turbulence, changeable policies, poor business environment, widespread corruption, and rising security risks. In some countries, there is still a market for the China threat theory, and people have many misunderstandings about the Belt and Road, all of which should be paid attention to in the process of promoting the Belt and Road construction in China.

 

Notes:

[1]:Ding Xiaoxing, Director of China Institute of Modern International Relations, research fellow.

 

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